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Thursday, April 14, 2016

2016 NBA Playoff Teams Versus the Field


The 82-game gauntlet that is the NBA season has sadly come to an end. On the bright side, the 16-team playoff field has been set, with the second season commencing on Saturday. While every series has its favorites - and the Warriors seem poised to win back-to-back titles - there are numerous matchup combinations that could possibly occur between now and the final buzzer in June. Here's a look at how each playoff team stacks up against their own conference as well as the rest of the field. 

The fact that the west holds form from 1st to 4th seed is no surprise. The Grizzlies have been wracked by injuries and it shows in their conference record. It's going to be a bad time for them against the Spurs. The fact that Toronto leads the conference over Cleveland is not lost on me either. The Raptors went 2-1 against the Passiveliers this season. Is that an omen, or will this go down like LeBron's Heat against the Bulls: threatening in the season, but housed in the playoffs

I am surprised that only five teams are above .500 in their conference, but it sort of evens out once you factor in overall records.

See anything interesting about these standings? Point it out in the comments below.




Wednesday, April 13, 2016

Scenario Mode 2016 NBA Awards Ceremony


Today is the final day of the 2015-16 NBA season, which has been historic on multiple levels. A lot of great performances on the court make this year's award season ripe with viable candidates. Today I will give you my picks for each award and my reasoning behind each choice. Do my picks match up with yours? Let me know in the comments below.



Most Valuable Player: Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
To me, this award is a foregone conclusion. I'm guessing there will be an official MVP voter that will be "that guy" and not vote for Curry, but quite frankly I think the only answer here is Curry. Curry has been the transcendent leader of one of the best teams in NBA history. This season he's been one of the best three-point shooters, one of the most efficient scorers, and one of the top pickpockets in the league. All of those attributes in addition to his leadership and his impact on opponent defensive schemes shows in the advanced statistics, as he leads the league in win shares (17.4), box score plus/minus (12.2), and value over a replacement player (9.5). It's Curry. The answer is Curry. Vote Curry.


Rookie: Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves
I'll cop to not watching many Minnesota Timberwolves games, and two of them were TNT-televised matchups against Golden State. But, statistically, KAT leads all rookies in win shares (8.0) and is the only one averaging a double-double this year. So he's kind of a big deal. He's stretches the floor with his shooting range, but can still back a man down in the post, and was one of the top defensive rookies this year. Karl-Anthony is getting his career off to a great start with a smashing rookie year, and he deserves the hardware for his hard work.


Defensive Player: Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks
I went with the dark horse candidate for DPOY. Millsap leads the league in defensive win shares (6.0), and he does this on the second-most efficient defense in the league. While Kawhi Leonard is the more likely pick for this award, Millsap has a larger share of his team's defensive wins than Leonard. I'm sure there will be a handful of votes for Millsap, so his efforts won't go completely unrecognized, but I figured I'd also throw my hat in the ring.


Most Improved: C.J. McCollum, Portland Trail Blazers
When the Trail Blazers lost their four key starters over the summer, people reasonably thought that Portland would miss the playoffs this year as they picked up the pieces. The Trail Blazers themselves had other ideas. Not only did they make the playoffs, they clinched a seed in the middle of the Western Conference bracket. While this was a team and coach effort, one of the major reasons for this surprise season was the ascendance of C.J. McCollum. McCollum had a +4.1 win share increase from 2015 to 2016 as he stepped in as the team's second scoring option. Giannis Antetokounmpo is also an excellent candidate for this award. For me, however, Antetokounmpo's massive improvement is offset by the fact that the team around him regressed and will be sitting out this postseason and making it last year. McCollum filled the scoring vacuum and contributed to his team remaining afloat in the West. For that reason, he gets the award.


Sixth Man: Enes Kanter, Oklahoma City Thunder
I had a hard time choosing between Kanter or Ed Davis. Kanter contributes major scoring and rebounding off the bench, and his contributions helped the Thunder become the best non-Warrior/Spur team in the West. Meanwhile, Davis contributes on defensively, on the boards, and in the flow of the offense. Davis is part of the synergistic effort in Portland that kept the team from free-falling. But I went with Kanter because he has a much higher usage rate than Davis, meaning he's called upon more to do his job. Kanter's work also helped his team to a better record that Davis's, even if Ed is more versatile. It was a close call, but I went with Enes Kanter.


Coach: Steve Kerr, Golden State Warriors
The Warriors are 72-9. Enough said. Even though I wish that Luke Walton got official recognition for his interim wins, those victories are still an indictment of the culture that Kerr developed. His ethos was still present even when he was recovering from his surgery, and Walton and the Warriors were able to carry on until Steve returned (I suppose that's why they count those season-opening wins for Kerr). While it's expected that a coach will coach well during a title defense, this team is something that has not been witnessed before - statistically or schematically - in NBA history. There are a number of great coaches that could also get this award, and that's definitely a good sign about the state of coaching in this league. However, if you give me the decision, I'm going with Steve Kerr.


Executive: R.C. Buford, San Antonio Spurs
The 2014 Executive of the Year did it again. This time, he orchestrated the transition from the old Big Three (Duncan-Parker-Ginobili) to a new trio (Leonard-Aldridge-West). In the process, the team pulled off their winningest season. That's saying something for a team that has only missed the playoffs four times since joining the NBA and hasn't won less than 61% of their games since the year before they drafted Duncan. While Golden State made minor changes and simply developed the players they got, and other teams made big moves that garnered decent improvements, Buford scored some big-time signings that still managed to gel well with the Spurs Way. R.C.'s summer acquisitions, his midseason veteran additions of Andre Miller and Kevin Martin, and the emergence of Jonathan Simmons and Boban Marjanovic were all great moves. All of this shows that Buford is deserving of his second EOY trophy.

All-NBA Teams
There were plenty of top-flight players deserving of All-NBA nods this season. I went mostly by win shares, but also factored in if the team was in the playoffs, the teams's record, and if that team improved from the previous season. For that reason, James Harden and Jimmy Butler were left out because their teams underachieved. Klay Thompson and Damian Lillard were unfortunately left out because their team win share contributions were not as sizeable as the other guards on this list for their teams.

First Team
F - Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs
F - LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
C - DeAndre Jordan, Los Angeles Clippers
G - Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
G - Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder

Second Team
F - Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
F - Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors
C - Hassan Whiteside, Miami Heat
G - Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers
G - Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors

Third Team
F - LaMarcus Aldridge, San Antonio Spurs
F - Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks
C - Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks
G - Kemba Walker, Charlotte Hornets
G - Isaiah Thomas, Boston Celtics

All-Defensive Teams
For this list I looked at defensive win shares and gave nods to any starters at the top of the list. While the frontcourt was easy to do, the guards on the second team were a little surprise to me. I'm pretty sure there will be two different names in the spots for Danny Green and Bazemore when the awards are announced, but the advanced stats looked good enough for me.

First Team
F - Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks
F - Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs
C - DeAndre Jordan, Los Angeles Clippers
G - Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder
G - Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors

Second Team
F - Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors
F - LaMarcus Aldridge, San Antonio Spurs
C - Hassan Whiteside, Miami Heat
G - Danny Green, San Antonio Spurs
G - Kent Bazemore, Atlanta Hawks

All-Rookie Teams
The rookie teams were a little tricky for me at first, because it gets a little less obvious once you get past Towns and Porzingis. Jokic was a statistical beast, so I added him. D'Angelo Russell was atrocious in the advanced stats, but he was the only replacement level point guard this year (Mudiay and Okafor were below replacement level, but I'm sure they'll get better down the line). Everybody else were above-replacement-level players that I felt did well this season.

First Team
F - Kristaps Porzingis, New York Knicks
C - Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves
C - Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
G - Justise Winslow, Miami Heat
G - D'Angelo Russell, Los Angeles Lakers

Second Team
F - Frank Kaminsky, Charlotte Hornets
F - Larry Nance, Jr., Los Angeles Lakers
C - Willie Cauley-Stein, Sacramento Kings
C - Boban Marjanovic, San Antonio Spurs
G - Josh Richardson, Miami Heat

Tuesday, April 12, 2016

All-ARCO Arena Teams

Sleep Train Arena, formerly known as ARCO Arena and Power Balance Pavillion, has served as the home venue of Sacramento's lone top flight professional team since 1988. It's tenure in that position came to an end on Saturday with the Kings pulling out a 114-112 victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Over the arena's 28 years as Home of the Kings, I'm sure many fans and rivals alike have their share of memories and moments about this building. Today, I want to look at the best players to have played inside ARCO Arena. I'm sure a lot of the players that Kings fans remember fondly will find their way onto this list.

The two teams below are the best players - by Game Score - to have played for and against the Kings in all games at Sleep Train Arena. I'll call them All-ARCO teams for nostalgia's sake.

Starters
C - DeMarcus Cousins (203 games, 15.2)
PF - Chris Webber (213 games, 18.1)
SF - Metta World Peace (86 games, 14.7)
SG - Mitch Richmond (262 games, 16.4)
PG - Danny Ainge (55 games, 15.4)
Bench
SF - Rudy Gay (94 games, 14.1)
PF/C - Antoine Carr (53 games, 13.6)
PG - Rajon Rondo (36 games, 13.6)
PG - Mike Bibby (261 games, 13.5)
PG - Kenny Smith (65 games, 13.4)
SF - Peja Stojakovic (296 games, 13.2)
SG - Tyreke Evans (136 games, 13.0)
SF - Rodney McCray (77 games, 12.9)

Starters
C - Shaquille O'Neal (30 games, 19.2)
PF - Karl Malone (38 games, 17.8)
SF - LeBron James (11 games, 24.5)
SG - Kobe Bryant (42 games, 18.9)
PG - Chris Paul (19 games, 20.8)
Bench
SG - Dwyane Wade (8 games, 24.3)
C - Hakeem Olajuwon (20 games, 21.3)
SF - Kevin Durant (16 games, 20.5)
SG - Michael Jordan (10 games, 19.9)
SG - James Harden (13 games, 19.1)
PG - Magic Johnson (7 games, 18.8)
SF - Dominique Wilkins (7 games, 17.9)
PG - Allen Iverson (14 games, 17.8)

Monday, April 11, 2016

Is the Bulls Farce Coming to An End?


Good riddance.

The Indiana Pacers blasted the Brooklyn Nets 129-105 on Sunday evening. The win allowed the Pacers to clinch a playoff spot after a gruesome Paul George injury set them back last season. The win also eliminated the Chicago Bulls from playoff contention, keeping them out of the playoff party for the first time since 2008, the season that put them in the position to draft Derrick Rose.

I feel like this is the way the season should have turned out for the Chicago Bulls. On paper, this team is wonderfully talented, but power struggles, injuries, and a lack of identity or cohesion took this team from being a contender in the Eastern Conference to mediocre.

The Bulls needed a season like this. Since the beginning of the Thibodeaux era, it seemed like this team was constantly running on fumes. One key player would be injured, and the next man up would have to play out of his mind just to pick up the slack. Eventually, almost every year the team would meet the wall that is LeBron James and fall apart. It seemed all the people with power - the star players and more importantly the front office - felt it was Thibodeaux's fault, and he was let go. This season showed the Bulls fans and its organization that the problem wasn't the departing coach, but was everyone else around him.

Fred Hoiberg thought he was coming from Iowa State and into a cushy job. Little did he know he would be faced with more injuries, a star player looking to assert his dominance, a former MVP that played well but not quite to his old self, and a big man that would rather fill stat-sheets and enjoy the nightlife than actually play defense. Unlike Brad Stevens, this college coach responded to the adversity by being essentially mute, rarely holding his players accountable and rarely asserting himself on the sidelines (only one technical all season).

So the Bulls season, with a half-week left, can really be summarized with one word: meh.

This was hopefully a humbling season for players, and this summer should be one that sees a sciesmic shift in the roster and the culture. The Bulls had 91% roster continuity between the 2014-15 season and this year. That can not happen again.

Preferably I would like to see Gar Forman and John Paxson removed from their positions, but owner Jerry Reinsdorf is notorious for being loyal-to-a-fault towards his front office staff. In reality, I would find their removals welcomed but shocking.

At head coach, I am 50-50 on Fred Hoiberg. He failed as a coach this season. However, if the roster is retrofitted correctly, he could have players that are more than willing to listen to him and follow the schemes that made him mildly successful at Iowa State. On the other hand, I wouldn't mind seeing him let go and replaced by a coach with NBA bench experience (head or assistant) or high-performing college experience. All I know is this coach and this current roster cannot co-exist if the Bulls want to be a factor in the East again.

Public enemy #1 for me is Pau Gasol. While his stat sheet and his fill-in All-Star Game appearance says otherwise, I feel like he has been a waste this season. His effort was wildly inconsistent over the course of the season, and he was non-existent on defense. He basically became Carlos Boozer 2.0 in 2015-16, after a season where he was a fairly useful presence upfront in Thibodeaux's final season. Luckily, there are rumors that he may not be looking to return to the team next year, which would be just fine with me.

The other big decision that needs to be made is the choice between keeping Derrick Rose or Jimmy Butler. These two have had major friction with each other as there seemed to be a power struggle for who is The Man in this town. Derrick Rose is the hometown kid, the #1 overall pick, the former MVP. But when Rose's ACL sidelined his career, Jimmy Butler stepped into the power vacuum. 2016 saw them muscling for the chance to have the voice on this team. Neither won, and combined with Hoiberg's voicelessness, the Bulls lost their identity. At least in the past, the team had the identity of defensive scrappers under Thibodeaux.

So the choice has to be made, Rose or Butler? Butler is an outstanding two-way All-Star, but he was a little too ball-dominant for a Hoiberg system that necessitates ball movement. If the Bulls choose Butler, would he be willing to move the ball around a little more while becoming the player voice of the team? Rose on the other hand has had a decent year. He's not back to his MVP self, and probably never will be, but he was absolutely starter-worthy. If the Bulls keep Rose, the question will be how many more years he can provide serviceable output? My guess is that the Bulls will keep Butler, as he has more upside and - more importantly - guaranteed money on their books than Rose does.

It's going to be a cruel summer for the Bulls, or at least it should be. This team should not be the same next year as it was this year. The 2016 Bulls represented a lack of effort, a lack of identity, and a lack of team cammraderie. The glue that was the hard-chargin' Tom Thibodeaux had to be removed in order for the public to see that this team was truly a house of cards. The summer of 2016 will show what Jerry Reinsdorf truly expects from his basketball franchise, and if fans should care about them moving forward.