Links About The Tank

Happy Friday! I hope you're doing well.

The resignation of Sam Hinkie over two weeks ago really has me pondering about team-building in the NBA. I detest the concept of tanking so much because I feel it goes completely against the entire point of sport, which is to win. Specifically with Hinkie, even after reflecting and doing some cursory research, I found his plan to be a cowards way around concrete team-building and development. He was so bent on avoiding the treadmill of mediocrity that his teams instead were some of the worst in NBA history. It's funny he and his followers were terrified about the "treadmill of mediocrity" when there was a realistically good chance that even when he got the unicorn superstar he was looking for, the Sixers would have to spend some time on it at some point along the way.

Hinkie and Sixers fans that brought into The Process sounded a lot like post-grad twenty-somethings or someone going through a mid-life crisis. They felt they were on a rudderless ship for such a long time, so they felt that something needed to be done differently. The problem is that the "something" has actually made things worse! However, now that changes have been made, hopefully the Sixers can take inventory and move in a more productive direction.

In all the reading and listening I have done on the topic in the past couple of weeks, I figure I would provide links to some of my favorite readings. I hope you will enjoy and learn something from them, regardless of which side of the tanking argument you're on.

"An Honest Reflection on Tanking" by Jack Neubecker is an amazing article that moves away from the anecdotes that come with discussions of tanking, and dives into the numbers.

"Losing is Not a Winning Strategy in the NBA" by Dave Berri was written months into Sam Hinkie's tenure, and looks at how teams fare down the line after they win a certain amount of games in a season.

"The Myth of the Tanking Spurs" by Andres Alvarez looks to dispel the conventional belief that the Spurs tanked the 1996-1997 season in order to get Tim Duncan. Did they, or was it a snake-bitten season for a powerhouse franchise?

"The Idea Behind The Process is Wrong, and Always Has Been" by Kevin Draper goes the more anecdotal route of skewering The Process and the foundations it was built upon. I add this link because it basically says a lot of the things I feel about it.

"Sam Hinkie Was a Cult Leader, Not an Innovator" by Jared Wade is a complete ethering of Hinkie that echoes my more emotional sentiments on the subject.

Lastly, I'll link you to my previous article "Sam Hinkie By the Numbers", where I exhibit some interesting numbers I found regarding his tenure in Philadelphia.

Sam Hinkie By the Numbers

On April 7th, Sam Hinkie resigned as General Manager and President of Basketball Operations of the Philadelphia 76ers. Over his three-year tenure, he took the controversial approach of building through the draft by perpetually dealing players in exchange for future picks. While he leaves the 76ers with extra drafts picks through the 2021 draft the team endured the second-worst three-year stretch in NBA history, including ending the 2016 season with the second-worst record of all-time. Below are a couple of other numbers the encapsulate the absurdity of the Hinkie era. Thank goodness it's over.

Sam Hinkie drafted 16 players over 3 seasons. Only 4 remain on the 76ers roster: Jahlil Okafor, Jerami Grant, Richaun Holmes, and Joel Embiid. 10 have been traded away, including Elfrid Payton, Michael Carter-Williams, and K.J. McDaniels. One - Pierre Jackson - signed with the Sixers in the preseason only to be waived before the season, thus renouncing his rights. Vasilije Micic is the only Hinkie-drafted player that still has his draft rights retained. Nerlens Noel and the rights to Dario Saric were traded for.

The players he drafted and kept have combined for 5.3 win shares over the last two seasons, since none of them played the 2013-14 season. The players he drafted and eventually dealt away have combined for 6.9 win shares over the same span, with Glen Rice, Jr. also posting -0.1 win shares in 13-14.

Golden State's Stephen Curry leads in the NBA in win shares over the last three seasons with 46.9. Nerlens Noel paces the 76ers in win shares with 7.0.  He is followed by Robert Covington (5.9), Hollis Thompson (5.8), and Henry Sims (4.0).

There have only been six instances of a team losing 70 of more games:

• After going 9-73 in 1972-73, the 76ers would make it to the finals in 1977, falling to the Portland Trail Blazers.
• After an 11-71 1993 season, the Mavericks wouldn't win 50+ games until the 2001 season, made the finals in 2006, and then won them in 2011
• After going 11-71 in 1998, the Denver Nuggets had a stretch of success led by star forward Carmelo Anthony. They had their first 50-win season in 2008, but have declined since Anthony's departure in 2011.
• After going 12-70 in 1987, the LA Clippers would not see a 50+ win season until they posted a 56-26 record in 2013(!)
• The New Jersey Nets went 12-70 in 2010. After going all-in in light of their move to Brooklyn in 2012-13, the team is trending down without posting a 50-win season since

With the post-merger signing of Julius Erving playing a part in the 73 Sixers's meteoric rise, a Lottery Era 70-loss squad apparently has about 18 years standing between futility and championship glory.

The NBA According to Scenarioball

Happy Monday and Happy Black History Month! I hope you had a great weekend.

A lot of exciting stuff will be coming your way this month, including my first video for the Scenario Mode YouTube channel. I'm still working on my rhythm from recording games to editing to posting. So as of this writing, my first video isn't ready just yet. In the meantime, I decided to give you a post that puts my new game Scenarioball into perspective. While I have done some tabulations for individual games, I eventually wanted to look at my game from a more macro level. The beginning of a new month seems like a good time to reflect.

Below are NBA team Scenarioball stats through January 31st. While the game can get much more advanced by tracking things such as ugly-looking shots and missed open layups, I figured I would keep it simple and look up the tracked stats that you can find in the NBA.com stats section.

It's really cool to see it all laid out in front of me. Here are a few loose observations I extract from the numbers:

• I'm not surprised that in terms of what I enjoy the most about basketball, the Warriors bring it the most and in spades. Every Warriors game I watch has been an event for me. I have been particularly enamored with the play of Steph Curry like almost everyone else, but Golden State's entertainment value is a team effort. I'm looking forward to seeing if they can cap off a historic season, dunking and dropping treys along the way.
• Depsite their underacheiving, the Rockets seem to still be entertaining to watch. I had been avoiding Rockets games up to this point because of the organizational and defensive mess they're in, as well as their outright refusal to play the raw but talented K.J. McDaniels. In the face of these stats, maybe I'll give them a look when they come back around on the national schedule.
• When Doc Rivers replaced Vinny Del Negro as coach of the Clippers in 2013, Blake Griffin quipped that Lob City "[didn't] exist anymore". Yet there they are, leading the NBA in alley-oops, propelling themselves into 3rd place in the Scenarioball standings. A few things turn me off from the Clippers. Among them are Doc's constant whining for calls (more than what's normal for NBA players and coaches), torpedoing his roster with each transaction, and the team's below-average logos and uniforms. Biases aside, there's no doubt the Clippers are fun to watch.
• It's hilarious that the worst team in the league are a Top 10 Scenarioball team, coming in at #9. We should get them a trophy! The Bulls, my favorite team, are all the way down at #20.
• The Brooklyn Nets are at the bottom of the Scenarioball standings with only 118(!) points. They're 48 games into the season, yet are barely over 100 points. If you doubled the Nets' point total, it would still fall short of the second-to-last Hornets. After all of the fanfare of moving into a cool, new arena in the heart of Brooklyn and paying big bucks to be an immediate contender, this franchise has stagnated. The team is attempting to transition with the removal of head coach Lionel Hollins and reassignment of GM Billy King. At this point in American history, however, the future is up in the air. They will be hard to watch for the foreseeable future.

There's a look at the NBA according to basic Scenarioball. Let me know what you think in the comments. Do any of these findings surprise you? Are their teams you enjoy or dislike that are in different places in the standings? I will definitely be updating the stats and adding some advanced categories at a later date. I also want to comb through the college ranks, too, but with 351 schools, that post will take awhile.