Links About The Tank

Happy Friday! I hope you're doing well.

The resignation of Sam Hinkie over two weeks ago really has me pondering about team-building in the NBA. I detest the concept of tanking so much because I feel it goes completely against the entire point of sport, which is to win. Specifically with Hinkie, even after reflecting and doing some cursory research, I found his plan to be a cowards way around concrete team-building and development. He was so bent on avoiding the treadmill of mediocrity that his teams instead were some of the worst in NBA history. It's funny he and his followers were terrified about the "treadmill of mediocrity" when there was a realistically good chance that even when he got the unicorn superstar he was looking for, the Sixers would have to spend some time on it at some point along the way.

Hinkie and Sixers fans that brought into The Process sounded a lot like post-grad twenty-somethings or someone going through a mid-life crisis. They felt they were on a rudderless ship for such a long time, so they felt that something needed to be done differently. The problem is that the "something" has actually made things worse! However, now that changes have been made, hopefully the Sixers can take inventory and move in a more productive direction.

In all the reading and listening I have done on the topic in the past couple of weeks, I figure I would provide links to some of my favorite readings. I hope you will enjoy and learn something from them, regardless of which side of the tanking argument you're on.

"An Honest Reflection on Tanking" by Jack Neubecker is an amazing article that moves away from the anecdotes that come with discussions of tanking, and dives into the numbers.

"Losing is Not a Winning Strategy in the NBA" by Dave Berri was written months into Sam Hinkie's tenure, and looks at how teams fare down the line after they win a certain amount of games in a season.

"The Myth of the Tanking Spurs" by Andres Alvarez looks to dispel the conventional belief that the Spurs tanked the 1996-1997 season in order to get Tim Duncan. Did they, or was it a snake-bitten season for a powerhouse franchise?

"The Idea Behind The Process is Wrong, and Always Has Been" by Kevin Draper goes the more anecdotal route of skewering The Process and the foundations it was built upon. I add this link because it basically says a lot of the things I feel about it.

"Sam Hinkie Was a Cult Leader, Not an Innovator" by Jared Wade is a complete ethering of Hinkie that echoes my more emotional sentiments on the subject.

Lastly, I'll link you to my previous article "Sam Hinkie By the Numbers", where I exhibit some interesting numbers I found regarding his tenure in Philadelphia.

Sam Hinkie By the Numbers

On April 7th, Sam Hinkie resigned as General Manager and President of Basketball Operations of the Philadelphia 76ers. Over his three-year tenure, he took the controversial approach of building through the draft by perpetually dealing players in exchange for future picks. While he leaves the 76ers with extra drafts picks through the 2021 draft the team endured the second-worst three-year stretch in NBA history, including ending the 2016 season with the second-worst record of all-time. Below are a couple of other numbers the encapsulate the absurdity of the Hinkie era. Thank goodness it's over.

Sam Hinkie drafted 16 players over 3 seasons. Only 4 remain on the 76ers roster: Jahlil Okafor, Jerami Grant, Richaun Holmes, and Joel Embiid. 10 have been traded away, including Elfrid Payton, Michael Carter-Williams, and K.J. McDaniels. One - Pierre Jackson - signed with the Sixers in the preseason only to be waived before the season, thus renouncing his rights. Vasilije Micic is the only Hinkie-drafted player that still has his draft rights retained. Nerlens Noel and the rights to Dario Saric were traded for.

The players he drafted and kept have combined for 5.3 win shares over the last two seasons, since none of them played the 2013-14 season. The players he drafted and eventually dealt away have combined for 6.9 win shares over the same span, with Glen Rice, Jr. also posting -0.1 win shares in 13-14.

Golden State's Stephen Curry leads in the NBA in win shares over the last three seasons with 46.9. Nerlens Noel paces the 76ers in win shares with 7.0.  He is followed by Robert Covington (5.9), Hollis Thompson (5.8), and Henry Sims (4.0).

There have only been six instances of a team losing 70 of more games:

• After going 9-73 in 1972-73, the 76ers would make it to the finals in 1977, falling to the Portland Trail Blazers.
• After an 11-71 1993 season, the Mavericks wouldn't win 50+ games until the 2001 season, made the finals in 2006, and then won them in 2011
• After going 11-71 in 1998, the Denver Nuggets had a stretch of success led by star forward Carmelo Anthony. They had their first 50-win season in 2008, but have declined since Anthony's departure in 2011.
• After going 12-70 in 1987, the LA Clippers would not see a 50+ win season until they posted a 56-26 record in 2013(!)
• The New Jersey Nets went 12-70 in 2010. After going all-in in light of their move to Brooklyn in 2012-13, the team is trending down without posting a 50-win season since

With the post-merger signing of Julius Erving playing a part in the 73 Sixers's meteoric rise, a Lottery Era 70-loss squad apparently has about 18 years standing between futility and championship glory.

Weekend Playoff Reax: Laying the Smacketh Down

Kevin Durant scored 23 points in the Thunder's 108-70 thrashing of the Dallas Mavericks. The 38-point win was the largest margin of victory, but the weekend saw 5 of 8 games decided by 20+ points.

After making a case for the existence of the First Round, it's pretty awkward that the opening weekend of the 2016 NBA Playoffs was so decisive. That was rough, man. Only two games were decided by single digits: Cleveland's five-point win over Detroit and Atlanta's one-point victory over Boston. Both of those games were in the Eastern Conference. The other side was a total bloodbath! 

The Western Weekend was decided by an average point differential of 31.5 points. While people aren't surprised the Warriors and Spurs had dominant wins over the Rockets and Grizzlies, respectively, the Thunder and Clippers rocking the Mavericks and Trail Blazers were somewhat jarring. While I assert that every game - even blowouts - has its good moments, I wouldn't blame you for sitting out the Western playoffs until the Semifinals.

The Warriors, Spurs, and Thunder are all going to run away with their series, plain and simple. It sucks, but I'm okay with that; it's the price you pay for greatness. I truly hope that the other five series can pick up their end of the bargain. I'm confident that there will be closer games in the East moving forward, but the Clippers and Blazers is a little more volatile. Portland's lead scorers Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum were contained in Game 1. I'm concerned that will become the tone of this series, but I also hold out hope that this duo will find a way to get their big shots and steal a game or two.

It's the first work week of the playoffs, and it's still a seven-game series. Anything can happen between now and the next weekend. I hope we will see better games moving forward. Enjoy the games, everyone!

A Case for the First Round

The NBA Playoffs kick off tomorrow with a best-of-seven First Round. There are fans and media members than tend to find this round to be pointless. Statistically, it is. There have only been three instances ever where a team lower than the fourth seed has made the NBA Finals. It is fair to ask if the Playoffs should be shortened by a round. However, I think the playoff structure is mostly fine as-is.

While I would shorten the First Round back to the best-of-five format it carried from 1983 through 2002, I think that its existence is justified. It gives eight fanbases a week or two more of exciting basketball to care about. If the First Round didn't exist, then a fair amount of those eight markets would probably stop caring just after the trade deadline, deading any excitement for the playoffs in over 2/3 of the league. The NBA isn't as regional as Major League Baseball, but in most markets people only care about the team in town. Leaving them out kills the excitement in a lot of places.

Keeping the field at 16 teams also allows a fair amount of markets to stay engaged in the NBA through the end of April but also keeps things competitive as nearly half of the league is left out each year.

For the league, the excitement converts into revenue for member teams and the hive mind itself. You get to sell a captivating experience for two more weeks through packed arenas and [team's secondary color]-outs. The First Round feels more like a party for teams in the middle, instead of just being an exclusive club for the über-best if the round didn't exist.

It also serves as a training ground for rising teams. For rising teams, such as the Pistons and Celtics, they get their first cracks at playoff experience. These experiences could pay dividends down the line, as these teams will be better situated if they return to the playoffs in the future.

I personally enjoy the extra basketball that the First Round provides without being too overwhelming. Nights with three or four games are much easier to keep track of as opposed to nights where there's as many as 13 games. At it's the better half of the league playing for the same goal, so the energy and level of play is top notch.

Tomorrow is the beginning of a two-month journey that - while it may be a foregone conclusion - will most likely still be compelling on a game-to-game basis. Enjoy the games, everyone!