Links About The Tank

Happy Friday! I hope you're doing well.

The resignation of Sam Hinkie over two weeks ago really has me pondering about team-building in the NBA. I detest the concept of tanking so much because I feel it goes completely against the entire point of sport, which is to win. Specifically with Hinkie, even after reflecting and doing some cursory research, I found his plan to be a cowards way around concrete team-building and development. He was so bent on avoiding the treadmill of mediocrity that his teams instead were some of the worst in NBA history. It's funny he and his followers were terrified about the "treadmill of mediocrity" when there was a realistically good chance that even when he got the unicorn superstar he was looking for, the Sixers would have to spend some time on it at some point along the way.

Hinkie and Sixers fans that brought into The Process sounded a lot like post-grad twenty-somethings or someone going through a mid-life crisis. They felt they were on a rudderless ship for such a long time, so they felt that something needed to be done differently. The problem is that the "something" has actually made things worse! However, now that changes have been made, hopefully the Sixers can take inventory and move in a more productive direction.

In all the reading and listening I have done on the topic in the past couple of weeks, I figure I would provide links to some of my favorite readings. I hope you will enjoy and learn something from them, regardless of which side of the tanking argument you're on.

"An Honest Reflection on Tanking" by Jack Neubecker is an amazing article that moves away from the anecdotes that come with discussions of tanking, and dives into the numbers.

"Losing is Not a Winning Strategy in the NBA" by Dave Berri was written months into Sam Hinkie's tenure, and looks at how teams fare down the line after they win a certain amount of games in a season.

"The Myth of the Tanking Spurs" by Andres Alvarez looks to dispel the conventional belief that the Spurs tanked the 1996-1997 season in order to get Tim Duncan. Did they, or was it a snake-bitten season for a powerhouse franchise?

"The Idea Behind The Process is Wrong, and Always Has Been" by Kevin Draper goes the more anecdotal route of skewering The Process and the foundations it was built upon. I add this link because it basically says a lot of the things I feel about it.

"Sam Hinkie Was a Cult Leader, Not an Innovator" by Jared Wade is a complete ethering of Hinkie that echoes my more emotional sentiments on the subject.

Lastly, I'll link you to my previous article "Sam Hinkie By the Numbers", where I exhibit some interesting numbers I found regarding his tenure in Philadelphia.

Sam Hinkie By the Numbers

On April 7th, Sam Hinkie resigned as General Manager and President of Basketball Operations of the Philadelphia 76ers. Over his three-year tenure, he took the controversial approach of building through the draft by perpetually dealing players in exchange for future picks. While he leaves the 76ers with extra drafts picks through the 2021 draft the team endured the second-worst three-year stretch in NBA history, including ending the 2016 season with the second-worst record of all-time. Below are a couple of other numbers the encapsulate the absurdity of the Hinkie era. Thank goodness it's over.

Sam Hinkie drafted 16 players over 3 seasons. Only 4 remain on the 76ers roster: Jahlil Okafor, Jerami Grant, Richaun Holmes, and Joel Embiid. 10 have been traded away, including Elfrid Payton, Michael Carter-Williams, and K.J. McDaniels. One - Pierre Jackson - signed with the Sixers in the preseason only to be waived before the season, thus renouncing his rights. Vasilije Micic is the only Hinkie-drafted player that still has his draft rights retained. Nerlens Noel and the rights to Dario Saric were traded for.

The players he drafted and kept have combined for 5.3 win shares over the last two seasons, since none of them played the 2013-14 season. The players he drafted and eventually dealt away have combined for 6.9 win shares over the same span, with Glen Rice, Jr. also posting -0.1 win shares in 13-14.

Golden State's Stephen Curry leads in the NBA in win shares over the last three seasons with 46.9. Nerlens Noel paces the 76ers in win shares with 7.0.  He is followed by Robert Covington (5.9), Hollis Thompson (5.8), and Henry Sims (4.0).

There have only been six instances of a team losing 70 of more games:

• After going 9-73 in 1972-73, the 76ers would make it to the finals in 1977, falling to the Portland Trail Blazers.
• After an 11-71 1993 season, the Mavericks wouldn't win 50+ games until the 2001 season, made the finals in 2006, and then won them in 2011
• After going 11-71 in 1998, the Denver Nuggets had a stretch of success led by star forward Carmelo Anthony. They had their first 50-win season in 2008, but have declined since Anthony's departure in 2011.
• After going 12-70 in 1987, the LA Clippers would not see a 50+ win season until they posted a 56-26 record in 2013(!)
• The New Jersey Nets went 12-70 in 2010. After going all-in in light of their move to Brooklyn in 2012-13, the team is trending down without posting a 50-win season since

With the post-merger signing of Julius Erving playing a part in the 73 Sixers's meteoric rise, a Lottery Era 70-loss squad apparently has about 18 years standing between futility and championship glory.

Weekend Playoff Reax: Laying the Smacketh Down

Kevin Durant scored 23 points in the Thunder's 108-70 thrashing of the Dallas Mavericks. The 38-point win was the largest margin of victory, but the weekend saw 5 of 8 games decided by 20+ points.

After making a case for the existence of the First Round, it's pretty awkward that the opening weekend of the 2016 NBA Playoffs was so decisive. That was rough, man. Only two games were decided by single digits: Cleveland's five-point win over Detroit and Atlanta's one-point victory over Boston. Both of those games were in the Eastern Conference. The other side was a total bloodbath! 

The Western Weekend was decided by an average point differential of 31.5 points. While people aren't surprised the Warriors and Spurs had dominant wins over the Rockets and Grizzlies, respectively, the Thunder and Clippers rocking the Mavericks and Trail Blazers were somewhat jarring. While I assert that every game - even blowouts - has its good moments, I wouldn't blame you for sitting out the Western playoffs until the Semifinals.

The Warriors, Spurs, and Thunder are all going to run away with their series, plain and simple. It sucks, but I'm okay with that; it's the price you pay for greatness. I truly hope that the other five series can pick up their end of the bargain. I'm confident that there will be closer games in the East moving forward, but the Clippers and Blazers is a little more volatile. Portland's lead scorers Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum were contained in Game 1. I'm concerned that will become the tone of this series, but I also hold out hope that this duo will find a way to get their big shots and steal a game or two.

It's the first work week of the playoffs, and it's still a seven-game series. Anything can happen between now and the next weekend. I hope we will see better games moving forward. Enjoy the games, everyone!

A Case for the First Round

The NBA Playoffs kick off tomorrow with a best-of-seven First Round. There are fans and media members than tend to find this round to be pointless. Statistically, it is. There have only been three instances ever where a team lower than the fourth seed has made the NBA Finals. It is fair to ask if the Playoffs should be shortened by a round. However, I think the playoff structure is mostly fine as-is.

While I would shorten the First Round back to the best-of-five format it carried from 1983 through 2002, I think that its existence is justified. It gives eight fanbases a week or two more of exciting basketball to care about. If the First Round didn't exist, then a fair amount of those eight markets would probably stop caring just after the trade deadline, deading any excitement for the playoffs in over 2/3 of the league. The NBA isn't as regional as Major League Baseball, but in most markets people only care about the team in town. Leaving them out kills the excitement in a lot of places.

Keeping the field at 16 teams also allows a fair amount of markets to stay engaged in the NBA through the end of April but also keeps things competitive as nearly half of the league is left out each year.

For the league, the excitement converts into revenue for member teams and the hive mind itself. You get to sell a captivating experience for two more weeks through packed arenas and [team's secondary color]-outs. The First Round feels more like a party for teams in the middle, instead of just being an exclusive club for the über-best if the round didn't exist.

It also serves as a training ground for rising teams. For rising teams, such as the Pistons and Celtics, they get their first cracks at playoff experience. These experiences could pay dividends down the line, as these teams will be better situated if they return to the playoffs in the future.

I personally enjoy the extra basketball that the First Round provides without being too overwhelming. Nights with three or four games are much easier to keep track of as opposed to nights where there's as many as 13 games. At it's the better half of the league playing for the same goal, so the energy and level of play is top notch.

Tomorrow is the beginning of a two-month journey that - while it may be a foregone conclusion - will most likely still be compelling on a game-to-game basis. Enjoy the games, everyone!

2016 NBA Playoff Teams Versus the Field

The 82-game gauntlet that is the NBA season has sadly come to an end. On the bright side, the 16-team playoff field has been set, with the second season commencing on Saturday. While every series has its favorites - and the Warriors seem poised to win back-to-back titles - there are numerous matchup combinations that could possibly occur between now and the final buzzer in June. Here's a look at how each playoff team stacks up against their own conference as well as the rest of the field. 

The fact that the west holds form from 1st to 4th seed is no surprise. The Grizzlies have been wracked by injuries and it shows in their conference record. It's going to be a bad time for them against the Spurs. The fact that Toronto leads the conference over Cleveland is not lost on me either. The Raptors went 2-1 against the Passiveliers this season. Is that an omen, or will this go down like LeBron's Heat against the Bulls: threatening in the season, but housed in the playoffs? 

I am surprised that only five teams are above .500 in their conference, but it sort of evens out once you factor in overall records.

See anything interesting about these standings? Point it out in the comments below.

Scenario Mode 2016 NBA Awards Ceremony

Today is the final day of the 2015-16 NBA season, which has been historic on multiple levels. A lot of great performances on the court make this year's award season ripe with viable candidates. Today I will give you my picks for each award and my reasoning behind each choice. Do my picks match up with yours? Let me know in the comments below.

Most Valuable Player: Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors

To me, this award is a foregone conclusion. I'm guessing there will be an official MVP voter that will be "that guy" and not vote for Curry, but quite frankly I think the only answer here is Curry. Curry has been the transcendent leader of one of the best teams in NBA history. This season he's been one of the best three-point shooters, one of the most efficient scorers, and one of the top pickpockets in the league. All of those attributes in addition to his leadership and his impact on opponent defensive schemes shows in the advanced statistics, as he leads the league in win shares (17.4), box score plus/minus (12.2), and value over a replacement player (9.5). It's Curry. The answer is Curry. Vote Curry.

Rookie: Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves

I'll cop to not watching many Minnesota Timberwolves games, and two of them were TNT-televised matchups against Golden State. But, statistically, KAT leads all rookies in win shares (8.0) and is the only one averaging a double-double this year. So he's kind of a big deal. He's stretches the floor with his shooting range, but can still back a man down in the post, and was one of the top defensive rookies this year. Karl-Anthony is getting his career off to a great start with a smashing rookie year, and he deserves the hardware for his hard work.

Defensive Player: Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks

I went with the dark horse candidate for DPOY. Millsap leads the league in defensive win shares (6.0), and he does this on the second-most efficient defense in the league. While Kawhi Leonard is the more likely pick for this award, Millsap has a larger share of his team's defensive wins than Leonard. I'm sure there will be a handful of votes for Millsap, so his efforts won't go completely unrecognized, but I figured I'd also throw my hat in the ring.

Most Improved: C.J. McCollum, Portland Trail Blazers

When the Trail Blazers lost their four key starters over the summer, people reasonably thought that Portland would miss the playoffs this year as they picked up the pieces. The Trail Blazers themselves had other ideas. Not only did they make the playoffs, they clinched a seed in the middle of the Western Conference bracket. While this was a team and coach effort, one of the major reasons for this surprise season was the ascendance of C.J. McCollum. McCollum had a +4.1 win share increase from 2015 to 2016 as he stepped in as the team's second scoring option. Giannis Antetokounmpo is also an excellent candidate for this award. For me, however, Antetokounmpo's massive improvement is offset by the fact that the team around him regressed and will be sitting out this postseason and making it last year. McCollum filled the scoring vacuum and contributed to his team remaining afloat in the West. For that reason, he gets the award.

Sixth Man: Enes Kanter, Oklahoma City Thunder

I had a hard time choosing between Kanter or Ed Davis. Kanter contributes major scoring and rebounding off the bench, and his contributions helped the Thunder become the best non-Warrior/Spur team in the West. Meanwhile, Davis contributes on defensively, on the boards, and in the flow of the offense. Davis is part of the synergistic effort in Portland that kept the team from free-falling. But I went with Kanter because he has a much higher usage rate than Davis, meaning he's called upon more to do his job. Kanter's work also helped his team to a better record that Davis's, even if Ed is more versatile. It was a close call, but I went with Enes Kanter.

Coach: Steve Kerr, Golden State Warriors

The Warriors are 72-9. Enough said. Even though I wish that Luke Walton got official recognition for his interim wins, those victories are still an indictment of the culture that Kerr developed. His ethos was still present even when he was recovering from his surgery, and Walton and the Warriors were able to carry on until Steve returned (I suppose that's why they count those season-opening wins for Kerr). While it's expected that a coach will coach well during a title defense, this team is something that has not been witnessed before - statistically or schematically - in NBA history. There are a number of great coaches that could also get this award, and that's definitely a good sign about the state of coaching in this league. However, if you give me the decision, I'm going with Steve Kerr.

Executive: R.C. Buford, San Antonio Spurs

The 2014 Executive of the Year did it again. This time, he orchestrated the transition from the old Big Three (Duncan-Parker-Ginobili) to a new trio (Leonard-Aldridge-West). In the process, the team pulled off their winningest season. That's saying something for a team that has only missed the playoffs four times since joining the NBA and hasn't won less than 61% of their games since the year before they drafted Duncan. While Golden State made minor changes and simply developed the players they got, and other teams made big moves that garnered decent improvements, Buford scored some big-time signings that still managed to gel well with the Spurs Way. R.C.'s summer acquisitions, his midseason veteran additions of Andre Miller and Kevin Martin, and the emergence of Jonathan Simmons and Boban Marjanovic were all great moves. All of this shows that Buford is deserving of his second EOY trophy.

All-NBA Teams

There were plenty of top-flight players deserving of All-NBA nods this season. I went mostly by win shares, but also factored in if the team was in the playoffs, the teams's record, and if that team improved from the previous season. For that reason, James Harden and Jimmy Butler were left out because their teams underachieved. Klay Thompson and Damian Lillard were unfortunately left out because their team win share contributions were not as sizeable as the other guards on this list for their teams.

First Team

F - Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs

F - LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers

C - DeAndre Jordan, Los Angeles Clippers

G - Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors

G - Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder

Second Team

F - Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder

F - Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors

C - Hassan Whiteside, Miami Heat

G - Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers

G - Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors

Third Team

F - LaMarcus Aldridge, San Antonio Spurs

F - Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks

C - Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks

G - Kemba Walker, Charlotte Hornets

G - Isaiah Thomas, Boston Celtics

All-Defensive Teams

For this list I looked at defensive win shares and gave nods to any starters at the top of the list. While the frontcourt was easy to do, the guards on the second team were a little surprise to me. I'm pretty sure there will be two different names in the spots for Danny Green and Bazemore when the awards are announced, but the advanced stats looked good enough for me.

First Team

F - Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks

F - Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs

C - DeAndre Jordan, Los Angeles Clippers

G - Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder

G - Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors

Second Team

F - Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors

F - LaMarcus Aldridge, San Antonio Spurs

C - Hassan Whiteside, Miami Heat

G - Danny Green, San Antonio Spurs

G - Kent Bazemore, Atlanta Hawks

All-Rookie Teams

The rookie teams were a little tricky for me at first, because it gets a little less obvious once you get past Towns and Porzingis. Jokic was a statistical beast, so I added him. D'Angelo Russell was atrocious in the advanced stats, but he was the only replacement level point guard this year (Mudiay and Okafor were below replacement level, but I'm sure they'll get better down the line). Everybody else were above-replacement-level players that I felt did well this season.

First Team

F - Kristaps Porzingis, New York Knicks

C - Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves

C - Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets

G - Justise Winslow, Miami Heat

G - D'Angelo Russell, Los Angeles Lakers

Second Team

F - Frank Kaminsky, Charlotte Hornets

F - Larry Nance, Jr., Los Angeles Lakers

C - Willie Cauley-Stein, Sacramento Kings

C - Boban Marjanovic, San Antonio Spurs

G - Josh Richardson, Miami Heat

All-ARCO Arena Teams

Sleep Train Arena, formerly known as ARCO Arena and Power Balance Pavillion, has served as the home venue of Sacramento's lone top flight professional team since 1988. It's tenure in that position came to an end on Saturday with the Kings pulling out a 114-112 victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Over the arena's 28 years as Home of the Kings, I'm sure many fans and rivals alike have their share of memories and moments about this building. Today, I want to look at the best players to have played inside ARCO Arena. I'm sure a lot of the players that Kings fans remember fondly will find their way onto this list.

The two teams below are the best players - by Game Score - to have played for and against the Kings in all games at Sleep Train Arena. I'll call them All-ARCO teams for nostalgia's sake.

All-ARCO Home Team

Starters

C - DeMarcus Cousins (203 games, 15.2)

PF - Chris Webber (213 games, 18.1)

SF - Metta World Peace (86 games, 14.7)

SG - Mitch Richmond (262 games, 16.4)

PG - Danny Ainge (55 games, 15.4)

Bench

SF - Rudy Gay (94 games, 14.1)

PF/C - Antoine Carr (53 games, 13.6)

PG - Rajon Rondo (36 games, 13.6)

PG - Mike Bibby (261 games, 13.5)

PG - Kenny Smith (65 games, 13.4)

SF - Peja Stojakovic (296 games, 13.2)

SG - Tyreke Evans (136 games, 13.0)

SF - Rodney McCray (77 games, 12.9)

All-ARCO Rivals

Starters

C - Shaquille O'Neal (30 games, 19.2)

PF - Karl Malone (38 games, 17.8)

SF - LeBron James (11 games, 24.5)

SG - Kobe Bryant (42 games, 18.9)

PG - Chris Paul (19 games, 20.8)

Bench

SG - Dwyane Wade (8 games, 24.3)

C - Hakeem Olajuwon (20 games, 21.3)

SF - Kevin Durant (16 games, 20.5)

SG - Michael Jordan (10 games, 19.9)

SG - James Harden (13 games, 19.1)

PG - Magic Johnson (7 games, 18.8)

SF - Dominique Wilkins (7 games, 17.9)

PG - Allen Iverson (14 games, 17.8)

Is the Bulls Farce Coming to An End?

Good riddance.

The Indiana Pacers blasted the Brooklyn Nets 129-105 on Sunday evening. The win allowed the Pacers to clinch a playoff spot after a gruesome Paul George injury set them back last season. The win also eliminated the Chicago Bulls from playoff contention, keeping them out of the playoff party for the first time since 2008, the season that put them in the position to draft Derrick Rose.

I feel like this is the way the season should have turned out for the Chicago Bulls. On paper, this team is wonderfully talented, but power struggles, injuries, and a lack of identity or cohesion took this team from being a contender in the Eastern Conference to mediocre.

The Bulls needed a season like this. Since the beginning of the Thibodeaux era, it seemed like this team was constantly running on fumes. One key player would be injured, and the next man up would have to play out of his mind just to pick up the slack. Eventually, almost every year the team would meet the wall that is LeBron James and fall apart. It seemed all the people with power - the star players and more importantly the front office - felt it was Thibodeaux's fault, and he was let go. This season showed the Bulls fans and its organization that the problem wasn't the departing coach, but was everyone else around him.

Fred Hoiberg thought he was coming from Iowa State and into a cushy job. Little did he know he would be faced with more injuries, a star player looking to assert his dominance, a former MVP that played well but not quite to his old self, and a big man that would rather fill stat-sheets and enjoy the nightlife than actually play defense. Unlike Brad Stevens, this college coach responded to the adversity by being essentially mute, rarely holding his players accountable and rarely asserting himself on the sidelines (only one technical all season).

So the Bulls season, with a half-week left, can really be summarized with one word: meh.

This was hopefully a humbling season for players, and this summer should be one that sees a sciesmic shift in the roster and the culture. The Bulls had 91% roster continuity between the 2014-15 season and this year. That can not happen again.

Preferably I would like to see Gar Forman and John Paxson removed from their positions, but owner Jerry Reinsdorf is notorious for being loyal-to-a-fault towards his front office staff. In reality, I would find their removals welcomed but shocking.

At head coach, I am 50-50 on Fred Hoiberg. He failed as a coach this season. However, if the roster is retrofitted correctly, he could have players that are more than willing to listen to him and follow the schemes that made him mildly successful at Iowa State. On the other hand, I wouldn't mind seeing him let go and replaced by a coach with NBA bench experience (head or assistant) or high-performing college experience. All I know is this coach and this current roster cannot co-exist if the Bulls want to be a factor in the East again.

Public enemy #1 for me is Pau Gasol. While his stat sheet and his fill-in All-Star Game appearance says otherwise, I feel like he has been a waste this season. His effort was wildly inconsistent over the course of the season, and he was non-existent on defense. He basically became Carlos Boozer 2.0 in 2015-16, after a season where he was a fairly useful presence upfront in Thibodeaux's final season. Luckily, there are rumors that he may not be looking to return to the team next year, which would be just fine with me.

The other big decision that needs to be made is the choice between keeping Derrick Rose or Jimmy Butler. These two have had major friction with each other as there seemed to be a power struggle for who is The Man in this town. Derrick Rose is the hometown kid, the #1 overall pick, the former MVP. But when Rose's ACL sidelined his career, Jimmy Butler stepped into the power vacuum. 2016 saw them muscling for the chance to have the voice on this team. Neither won, and combined with Hoiberg's voicelessness, the Bulls lost their identity. At least in the past, the team had the identity of defensive scrappers under Thibodeaux.

So the choice has to be made, Rose or Butler? Butler is an outstanding two-way All-Star, but he was a little too ball-dominant for a Hoiberg system that necessitates ball movement. If the Bulls choose Butler, would he be willing to move the ball around a little more while becoming the player voice of the team? Rose on the other hand has had a decent year. He's not back to his MVP self, and probably never will be, but he was absolutely starter-worthy. If the Bulls keep Rose, the question will be how many more years he can provide serviceable output? My guess is that the Bulls will keep Butler, as he has more upside and - more importantly - guaranteed money on their books than Rose does.

It's going to be a cruel summer for the Bulls, or at least it should be. This team should not be the same next year as it was this year. The 2016 Bulls represented a lack of effort, a lack of identity, and a lack of team cammraderie. The glue that was the hard-chargin' Tom Thibodeaux had to be removed in order for the public to see that this team was truly a house of cards. The summer of 2016 will show what Jerry Reinsdorf truly expects from his basketball franchise, and if fans should care about them moving forward.

The Warriors at 70

I can't specifically pinpoint the game where I wanted the Warriors to start making history, but I can only assume it was at some point during their initial 24-0 run to kick off what has been an amazing 2015-16 campaign. 55 games later, the Golden State Warriors have accomplished what only one other team has: they have won 70 games in a season.

I was privileged to watch the Warriors take on the Spurs in Oakland last night on TNT. After the witnessing the recent pitfalls of a nearly unblemished team - tough losses to Boston and Minnesota on their home floor - I was on pins and needles from wire to wire even with the sizable lead the home side held over San Antonio for much of the game.

Once the final buzzer sounded, the fanfare wasn't as loud as I expected. Many fans in Oakland filed out of the building before the end of the game as if it were win #2 on the season. But at least this was a plateau that was finally reached. After the lead against Minnesota slipped away, part of me wondered if the Warriors would lose out the rest of the way and remain at 69 wins. I wondered if they would just be the team that almost did it but ultimately fizzled out. I was worried that the air they were in would not be as rarified as I hoped it would be.

Alas, the Warriors were able to stretch out and reach that nearly unattainable rung on the ladder of all-time great seasons. However, there are still a few games to go if they truly want to be the best.

I'm personally satisfied with 70. I really just wanted an all-time great team that "my era" could call its own, and putting 70 (or more) in the win column essentially solidifies that (assuming they win the title). The next step is seeing if they can truly set themselves apart from the rest. Draymond Green has stated publicly that he wants to win it, and the Warriors have come too far to not be competitive. I mean, they might as well considering they would most likely want momentum heading into the playoffs.

Even though there is unfinished business over this final week, the Warriors have already accomplished a lot. Regardless of their outcome in the postseason, they have already clinched their place in NBA lore.